This caught our attention this morning…and it may go under the radar today..but this is the type of headline that will re-surface within Wave 3 (down).

Geithner’s N.Y. Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, then led by Timothy Geithner, told American International Group Inc. to withhold details from the public about the bailed-out insurer’s payments to banks during the depths of the financial crisis, e-mails between the company and its regulator show.

We’ll have more to add once we see what the open looks like after the monthly jobs report, but as the Point and Figure chart on the SPX shows, there’s not a lot of margin for error.

The majors are overbought…at least short-term supported by the high % of components above the 200 day MA on both the SPX and NDX (92 and 90). Throw in a sentiment model that warns of complacency and you come away with a “fingers-crossed approach” that the jobs # better be good if your are levered and long.

The “rolling” rotation continues…starting with the rails (led by BNI)…then energy (led by XTO)…now it’s the financials (GS and JPM held the bottom of their respective short-term ranges and now are rallying). All this coming at the expense of the NDX leaders…at least for now.

What group will be next?…maybe retail, led by SHLD?

The common ground shared by these laggard groups is that few of their components had bullish charts prior to their rally back and were in need of outside stimulus (Buffett buying BNI and the XTO buyout) to mend the damage prior to the news.

Short-term snapbacks aside, there better be real leadership emerging soon if this bull as legs from here. This (lack of leadership) is another part of the bearish divergence that surfaces on the way up…something we would expect if Primary Wave 2 (up) is nearing its end.